Understanding the dynamics of the life span of a political system in light of IbnKhaldun postulations: Nigeria in view

Abstract

Historical accounts of many countries and regions have shown a metamorphosis of state building process in different stages of human civilizations especially on how nations evolve, rises to the peak and finally collapses. The aim of this study is predicting the future of Nigeria looking at its various aspect of political development within the framework of Ibn-Khaldun’s theory of the life span of a political system. Through a descriptive study of analysis of past and present events the study shows a correlation between the events in Nigeria and the events discussed in the stages of the life span of a dynasty by Ibn-Khaldun. However, the findings of the study shows that so far, the lifespan of the Nigerian political system is yet to reach the last stage of Ibn-Khaldun’s theory. But interestingly due to political prebendalism, bad governance and selfishness the country has acquired all the features of the last stage which portends a bleak future. The study therefore predicts three likely phenomena for Nigeria: Perpetual stay
in underdevelopment, the return of the military into power and breaking away into smaller nations. Thus, it concludes that unless with political creativity and reinventions the country has no future.