Exploring the effect of climate variability on the outputs of some selected crop in Gombe, Nigeria: A bound test approach

Abstract

The instability caused by climate change on the environment poses threats to the agricultural sector. Perhaps, changes in climate parameters are necessary requirement for efficient agricultural output. This study thus explores the effect of climate variability on the outputs some selected crop in Gombe, Nigeria, using time series data from 1996 to 2021. Autoregressive Distributive lag (ARDL) bounds testing technique was used for cointegration analysis. The cointegration test reveals that there is a stable long-run relationship in the models. According to the results of the long- and short-run elasticities coefficients, climate variables have a significant influence on crop output. There is a significant positive long-term link between rainfall and crop output, and a short-term significant negative link between temperature and crop output. Furthermore, there is a significant link between relative humidity and crop output in the short-run, however in the long-run, the link between relative humidity and crop yield was found to be insignificant. Hence, to reduce the negative effect of climate variability on crop output in the study area, the use of an improved-variety seedlings that are drought and pest resistant should be emphasized.